Dubai office deals hit 200% surge on completed-property shift

Dubai’s commercial real estate market recorded a decisive operational shift in the first half of 2026, with investors moving away from land banking and toward completed properties that generate immediate returns. The numbers are stark. Office transaction value nearly tripled to AED 15.81 billion, up from AED 5.28 billion a year earlier, a surge of close to 200%. Transaction volumes in the office category climbed 38.2% to 2,571 deals, while average office prices rose 85% year-on-year to AED 3,202 per square foot, reflecting intense competition for Grade A space in a market where premium supply remains constrained.

Land transactions, by contrast, declined sharply. Deal volumes fell 29.3% year-on-year to 941 transactions, and total value dropped 9.3% to AED 33.19 billion from AED 36.60 billion in the prior-year period. The pullback signals a fundamental recalibration in how capital is being deployed across the emirate’s business districts and free zones.

The retail segment has followed a similar trajectory. Transaction volumes increased 56.2% year-on-year to 853 deals, while retail transaction value jumped 174.3% to AED 3.71 billion from AED 1.35 billion in H1 2025. Average retail prices climbed 54% year-on-year to AED 3,486 per square foot. ANAROCK attributed the gains to strengthening consumer and business confidence alongside rising investor interest in well-positioned retail properties.

Broader market activity held firm. Overall transaction volumes increased nearly 13% year-on-year to 6,487 deals from 5,754 in H1 2025. Other segments, including hotel apartments, buildings and industrial assets, recorded a 5.3% increase in transaction volumes to 2,053 deals, though transaction value in those categories declined 17.9% to AED 11.33 billion.

The first quarter of 2026 delivered record performance, with transaction value reaching AED 40.75 billion, more than 40% higher than the year-ago period. That result came despite escalating regional tensions, demonstrating Dubai’s continued ability to attract capital during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Activity moderated in Q2 as the exceptional first-quarter performance created a difficult comparison base. Transaction volumes fell approximately 22% sequentially, and transaction value declined close to 40% quarter-on-quarter.

The sequential decline reflected partly the impact of large land transactions that had occurred in Q2 2025, creating an elevated base. On a year-on-year basis, Q2 2026 transaction volumes were broadly stable, declining around 1%, while transaction value was approximately 21% lower. Pricing, though, held up. Average commercial property prices rose 34% year-on-year in Q2 to AED 3,186 per square foot, indicating that buyers continued to pay premiums for prime, income-generating assets even as headline volumes softened.

Anuj Kejriwal, CEO of Retail and CEO of Europe, Middle East and Africa at ANAROCK Group, characterized the sharp rise in office transactions as evidence of intensifying demand for premium commercial space in Dubai. ANAROCK expects the commercial real estate market to sustain its growth trajectory through the remainder of 2026, supported by the emirate’s tax advantages, freehold ownership framework for foreign investors and continued expansion of the Golden Visa scheme.

Kejriwal acknowledged that near-term transaction volumes could continue to fluctuate with regional sentiment. Tight Grade A office supply, rising rents and steady occupier demand are expected to underpin the market’s momentum regardless. The H1 data makes the directional shift clear: while land continues to account for a significant share of commercial transaction value, the sharp rise in office and retail activity reflects a growing preference for assets that deliver income, particularly in prime locations.

Whether supply can keep pace with that demand, especially in the Grade A office segment where prices have already risen 85% in a single year, is the question the market will have to answer in the months ahead.