Federal statistics centre puts UAE GDP at AED961.9b

The Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre has published first-half national accounts showing the UAE’s real Gross Domestic Product at AED961.9 billion in constant prices for the first half of 2026, a 0.4 percent increase over the same period in 2025. The figures place the non-oil economy at the centre of the country’s growth story, with non-oil activities expanding by 1.8 percent and now accounting for 79.2 percent of the national economy, up from 78.1 percent a year earlier.

The release carries weight beyond the headline numbers. In its accompanying commentary, the Centre framed the results as evidence for how economic policy is made, arguing that accurate statistical data is essential for monitoring the performance and transformation of the UAE economy and for building a comprehensive picture of sectoral contributions. That framing positions the national statistical system as an instrument of evidence-based decision-making, informing planning and policymaking across government.

Behind the aggregate figures sits a detailed sectoral breakdown that officials can use to steer policy. Financial and insurance activities posted the strongest growth among major economic activities in the first half, rising 14.8 percent, followed by information and communication at 7.3 percent, health and social work at 6 percent, construction at 5.1 percent, government activities at 3.6 percent, and real estate at 2.3 percent. Measured by contribution to non-oil GDP, trade activities ranked first at 16.2 percent, ahead of financial and insurance at 15.2 percent, construction at 13.1 percent, manufacturing at 11.8 percent, and real estate at 7.9 percent.

The second quarter tells a more cautious story, and one that may shape how decision-makers respond. Real GDP reached AED476.9 billion in the quarter, a decline of 2.1 percent compared with the same period in 2025, while non-oil activities contracted by 1.1 percent. According to the Centre, several sectors, particularly tourism, transport, and trade, were affected by regional developments and disruptions to travel. The data therefore present policymakers with a two-speed picture: diversification advancing over the half-year as a whole, but exposed to external shocks in the shorter term.

Meanwhile, the Centre drew a direct policy lesson from the composition of the economy. Oil activities accounted for 20.8 percent of real GDP in the first half, against the 79.2 percent non-oil share, figures it said reaffirm the importance of advancing economic diversification and expanding the contribution of non-oil sectors to support sustainable growth and strengthen the resilience and competitiveness of the national economy.

Accountability for the reliability of these numbers rests with the statistical system itself. The Centre stressed that the first-half and second-quarter results are preliminary estimates based on the statistical methodologies and time series currently in use, a caveat that matters for any institution relying on the data for planning or regulatory purposes. In parallel, the FCSC, working with partners across the national statistical system, continues to implement the UAE Comprehensive GDP Revision Programme. The updated national GDP time series will be released after the comprehensive revision results are approved in the first quarter of 2027, a process that will determine the baseline against which future performance is judged.

For now, the published figures give government planners a broad view of an economy whose growth drivers are spread across trade, financial and insurance activities, construction, manufacturing, and real estate, and whose statistical apparatus is midway through a systematic overhaul of how that performance is measured. Whether the second-quarter contraction proves a passing disruption or a persistent drag is the question the next release will have to answer.