Dubai Office and Retail Markets Accelerate; H1 2026 Sales Outpace Full Year 2025

Dubai’s commercial real estate market logged AED19.5 billion in transaction value across 3,415 deals in the first half of 2026, according to analysis from W Capital Real Estate Brokerage, surpassing the full-year commercial property sales recorded throughout 2025 by 7.7 percent. The figures, drawn from Dubai Land Department data, point to a structural shift in how the emirate’s office and retail stock is being absorbed, with multinational corporations, financial institutions and technology firms driving the bulk of activity.

The pace of that absorption has been striking. Transaction value jumped 183 percent year-on-year compared to the same period in 2025, while the average deal size nearly doubled, rising from approximately AED2.8 million in H1 2025 to AED5.7 million in H1 2026. Larger deal sizes signal a clear appetite for premium office assets rather than opportunistic smaller purchases.

Walid Al Zarooni, Chairman of W Capital Real Estate Brokerage, was direct about what the numbers represent. “What we are witnessing today is not a speculative cycle but a direct reflection of Dubai’s expanding economy. The record growth in commercial property sales is being driven by real business activity, increasing corporate presence, higher employment levels and sustained international investment,” he said.

The office sector carried the market. Office properties generated AED15.8 billion through 2,569 transactions, accounting for more than 81 percent of total commercial real estate sales value. Retail units contributed AED3.7 billion from 846 transactions. Within offices, off-plan projects dominated, generating AED13 billion through 1,668 transactions against AED2.7 billion for ready space. Retail followed the same pattern, with off-plan properties recording AED2.5 billion and completed units contributing AED1.1 billion.

That concentration in off-plan assets reflects confidence in sustained future demand. Developers have continued introducing commercial projects built around modern design, sustainability standards, smart technologies and flexible workspaces. Supply, however, remains constrained. Al Zarooni identified this as a key factor supporting both rental growth and capital appreciation, while also flagging the risk it carries. “Developers must carefully expand the pipeline of premium office projects to ensure supply keeps pace with the emirate’s long-term economic growth,” he noted.

Meanwhile, the geographic spread of transactions illustrates how demand has moved beyond a single concentrated district. Business Bay led all office investment destinations, recording 814 transactions worth AED8 billion and accounting for more than half of total emirate office sales value in the first half of 2026. The Second Commercial Centre followed with AED1.6 billion, TECOM Site A with AED1.4 billion, Dubai Maritime City with AED1 billion, and Jumeirah Lakes Towers with AED910 million. Activity distributed across multiple business districts at varying price points reflects a market that has matured past dependence on one or two flagship zones.

The market has held its footing despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and global economic pressures. Al Zarooni attributed that resilience to a change in corporate decision-making. Companies are now choosing Dubai as a long-term base for regional and global operations, committing to headquarters relocations, workforce growth and operational expansion rather than treating commercial real estate as a short-term vehicle.

The downstream effects of that commitment extend well beyond office floors. Al Zarooni pointed to the multiplier each new office establishment creates. “When a company establishes a new office, it creates demand well beyond commercial real estate. Employees require housing, schools, retail, hospitality, transport and professional services. Every new office therefore acts as a catalyst for broader urban economic growth.” The Dubai International Financial Centre alone hosts more than 50,000 professionals, a concrete illustration of how business clusters generate economic activity across multiple sectors simultaneously.

W Capital expects the market to sustain its momentum through continued corporate expansion, foreign investment and growth across the financial, technology and professional services sectors. The more pressing question for the second half of 2026 is whether developers can move fast enough to close the gap between the pipeline of premium office projects and the pace at which occupiers are committing to Dubai as their operational home.