Dubai Delivers Record Unit Handovers as Transaction Surge Cools

Dubai’s residential market delivered approximately 27,000 completed units in the second quarter of 2026, the highest handover volume in five years, even as the number of new transactions fell sharply from the record highs of the previous year.

Dubai Land Department figures compiled by property statistics website DXB Interact recorded more than 38,000 residential transactions in the quarter, a decline of almost a third from the all-time high recorded a year earlier. Total sales value fell almost 40 percent to AED110.4 billion, roughly $30 billion, over the same period. Yet price per square foot rose 6.5 percent, a metric analysts read as evidence the market is normalizing rather than correcting broadly.

Additional reference context is available at https://www.agbi.com/analysis/real-estate/2026/07/dubai-property-sales-tumble-but-market-settling-at-true-value/.

The scale of the preceding run makes the current slowdown easier to understand. Between 2020 and 2025, Dubai’s total sales value increased 866 percent according to DLD data, with price per square foot nearly doubling. That extraordinary expansion has now given way to what market observers describe as a settling period following almost six months of regional conflict.

Savills characterized the transition in its quarterly report as a move toward “a period characterised by moderating transaction activity, elevated handover volumes and increasingly selective buyer behaviour.” The firm expects pricing to “remain broadly resilient overall” despite the volume decline. The analysis reflects a consensus among brokers and analysts that the market is undergoing a structural adjustment rather than a crisis, with fewer new launches and more disciplined developer behavior creating space for prices to stabilize.

The off-plan segment continues to dominate, accounting for 75 percent of sales volume and 73 percent of sales value in the quarter. That concentration may not last. Harry Martin, head of off-plan and capital markets at brokerage Betterhomes, noted that “there should be a rebalancing between secondary and off-plan transactions. We’ve always been weighted toward off-plan, partly because delivery has been slower over the years, and now we’re getting more established communities where secondary transactions will start to catch up.”

Developer caution has been pronounced. Off-plan starts fell approximately 90 percent between the first and second quarters, according to Savills. Martin called the pullback healthy, saying “it lets things settle and find their true value. For investors, it also means the developers still launching tend to be the more established ones with full supply chains and strong brands, so buyers are getting a more secure product.” This disciplined posture contrasts with conditions earlier in the year, when sellers began cutting asking prices and mortgage lending proved more resilient than cash sales.

The completions picture tells a different story about the pipeline. The roughly 27,000 units handed over in the second quarter, compared with around 7,000 in the first quarter, largely reflect projects launched approximately three years ago. The development pipeline remains substantial even as new launches have slowed, meaning handover pressure will continue for some time.

Richard Waind, chief executive of Betterhomes, pointed to buyer behavior as the clearest signal of underlying stability. “Fundamentally, we still have buyers active in the market and, more importantly, we’re not seeing any wholesale panic selling,” he said. “From the data, and anecdotally on the sales floor, market activity has been led largely by residents with a long-term view.”

Analysis from Arabian Gulf Business Insight, published at agbi.com, reinforces that interpretation, suggesting the current trajectory reflects a correction toward fundamentals rather than systemic failure. The combination of reduced speculation, fewer launches, and more selective buyer participation points to a market entering a more mature operating phase. Whether the pipeline of completions due from earlier launch cycles tests that stability further will depend on how quickly secondary market activity absorbs the new supply.